Morgan Stanley's latest research report warns that memory price increases remain aggressive. In Q3 2026, prices for mature-process DRAM such as DDR4 are expected to rise by as much as 50%, with a further 10% increase expected in Q4.
Even more striking is SLC NAND — the report projects even steeper gains, with up to 50% price increases in each of the remaining two quarters of the year, potentially doubling cumulative prices.
The root cause of this price surge is structural contraction on the supply side. As AI computing demand explodes, memory manufacturers are rapidly reallocating production capacity toward higher-value products:
HBM (High Bandwidth Memory): The core component of AI accelerators, with surging demand and top priority in production scheduling;
DDR5: The mainstream specification for next-generation servers and PCs, prioritized by manufacturers;
Higher-Layer NAND: Strong demand for enterprise SSDs is further squeezing legacy product lines.
Mature-process production lines (DDR4, SLC NAND, etc.) keep dropping in priority, supply gaps continue to widen, and prices naturally climb. This structural shortage is unlikely to ease in the near term.
Massive installed base of DDR4 users: Hundreds of millions of PCs and servers worldwide still run on DDR4 platforms and cannot migrate to DDR5 quickly — price hikes will directly raise upgrade and expansion costs;
Industrial and embedded applications hit hardest: SLC NAND is widely used in industrial control, security surveillance, automotive, and medical applications where reliability is critical. Demand is inelastic and price-sensitive buyers have few alternatives — two consecutive quarters of 50% increases will significantly raise end-product costs;
"Buy early, lock in the price" is the new consensus: Until the supply crunch eases, the sooner you lock in inventory, the lower your procurement cost. Available spot stock is becoming a scarce resource.
With Q3–Q4 price increases already well signaled, customers planning upgrades or replenishment should consider:
Watch DDR4 module quotes closely and place orders early to lock in prices before the surge;
Stock up on SLC NAND-based storage solutions (industrial storage, automotive storage, USB flash drives, etc.) ahead of time while inventory lasts;
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